CORE MELT - CONSEQUENCES
Calculation
of Reactor Accident
Consequences
U.S. Nuclear Power Plants (CRAC-2),
Sandia National Laboratory, 1982.
“Peak”
refers to the highest
calculated values – it does not
mean worst case scenario. This is due to uncertainties in the
meteorological modeling acknowledged by Sandia.
The model
only considered one year’s worth of data and
does not model
for precipitation beyond a 30-mile radius. This
is significant
because the highest consequences are predicted to
occur
when a radioactive plume encounters rain over a
densely
populated area.
Peak
Early Fatalities are deaths that
result within the first year.
The red area represents
the zone for peak fatalities. This radius is the largest calculated distance
from the plant at which early fatalities are expected to occur for a core
melt.
Peak
Early Injuries are radiation-induced
injuries occurring in
the first year that require
hospitalization of other medical attention –
such as sterility, thyroid nodules, vomiting and cataracts.
The orange area represents
the zone for peak early injuries. This radius is the largest calculated
distance from the plant at which early injuries are expected to occur for a
core melt.
Peak
Cancer Deaths are predicted to occur
over a lifetime.
However, this is not the case with leukemia which is assumed to have occurred within the first 30 years following
an
accident.
Spent
Fuel Accident -
In the case of a spent fuel pool accident, red,
orange and yellow areas would
experience more than 10 times the radioactivity released in Chernobyl, and the
consequences, 10 times worse!
Comment
CRAC II's above figures are conservative because:
1. census data from 1970 was used;
2. it was assumed that the entire 10-mile EPZ would be evacuated
within at most six hours after issuance of the evacuation order - the
current evacuation times are longer due to traffic congestion;
3. they sampled only 100 weather sequences out of over 8 thousand (an
entire year's worth) - a method which underestimates the peak value
occurring over the course of a year by about 30%;
4. they assumed aggressive medical treatment for all victims of acute
radiation exposure in developing estimates of the number of early
fatalities, and employed a now obsolete correlation between radiation dose
and cancer risk that underestimated the risk by a factor of 4 relative to
current models.
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